Florida State Seminoles vs Clemson Tigers predictions

Despite Clemson’s reputation, their lackluster offense and Florida State’s potent attack make the Seminoles the more likely victors in the upcoming matchup. Read on for our free match preview and betting picks.

Match Live Saturday 23 September, 12:00 PM ET
DAYS
Hr
Min
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Key Stats
– Florida State’s offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play and 9th in EPA per pass this season.
– Clemson ranks a dismal 121st nationally in explosiveness, with their QB having an aDOT of just 6.3.
– Clemson has only been an underdog in regular-season games once since 2016—and they lost.
BettingPicks Expert Predictions

Florida State -1.5 Win (-105)

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Florida State Seminoles vs Clemson Tigers: A Deeper Dive into the ACC Clash

The Rarity of Clemson as an Underdog

Let’s start with a mind-blowing fact: since 2016, Clemson has been considered an underdog in regular-season games only once. And in that singular instance, they lost to Pittsburgh in 2021. When Clemson’s tagged as an underdog, it’s usually with sound reasoning, as is the case in their upcoming game against Florida State. So, should you bet against Dabo Swinney’s team this time around? The signs point to ‘yes’.

Florida State’s Offensive Firepower

The Seminoles had a somewhat lackluster game against Boston College last week, especially in the fourth quarter. However, this shouldn’t be a focal point for judging their strength. Jordan Travis, the quarterback for Florida State, had a few hiccups in that game but is expected to be fit for the showdown with Clemson. Travis steers an FSU offense that ranks 3rd in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and 9th in EPA per pass this season. His lethal weapons include a robust offensive line and a dynamic wide receiver duo: Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. When pitted against Clemson’s strong front seven, it still appears that the FSU offense has the upper hand.

Clemson’s Struggling Offense

The major issue I have with Clemson mirrors the concern I’ve harbored since 2021: their offense is significantly lackluster. The team ranks a lowly 121st nationally in terms of explosiveness. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has chalked up five turnover-worthy plays according to Pro Football Focus and has an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of merely 6.3. The team’s wide receivers have been plagued with a drop rate exceeding 10%, a worrisome statistic for an offense that relies heavily on passing. New offensive coordinator Garrett Riley hasn’t seemed to turn the tide, as the team ranks 67th in EPA per pass and 78th in EPA per rush.

Florida State’s Defensive Prowess

The Seminoles’ defense, led by Jared Verse, poses another big hurdle for Clemson. They successfully implemented a blitz-heavy strategy against LSU earlier this season and are likely to replicate that. If Clemson falls behind on downs, expect Florida State to aggressively target the quarterback. This trench warfare could be the decisive factor that tilts the scale in favor of Florida State in what promises to be a hard-fought game.

BettingPicks Expert Predictions

Florida State -1.5 Win (-105)

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