Ole Miss emerges as a real threat to Alabama in the upcoming SEC opener, owing to strong offensive and defensive statistics, while Alabama struggles to maintain its typical dominance. Read on for our free match preview and betting picks.
Match Live Saturday 23 Sept, 3:30 PM ET
Key Stats
– Ole Miss ranks impressively at 8th in EPA per play and 7th in EPA per game.
– Alabama ranks a concerning 101st in passing success rate this season.
BettingPicks Expert Predictions
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Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide predictions: Reevaluating Alabama and Ole Miss Ahead of the SEC Opener
A Week of Surprises
Just one week can dramatically change the betting landscape for college football games. Last week, the lookahead line for the SEC opener between Alabama and Ole Miss stood at +11. However, the line plummeted to +7 after Alabama put up a less-than-convincing performance against South Florida. The switch between quarterbacks Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson yielded subpar results, leaving the Crimson Tide with a dismal -0.52 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback and an explosive play rate of just 3%. A late touchdown, scored with less than a minute remaining, was required to stretch Alabama’s lead to 17-3, highlighting the team’s struggles on offense.
Jalen Milroe: Can He Turn Things Around?
Jalen Milroe will be reinstated as the starting quarterback for Alabama in the SEC opener. However, he has shown considerable difficulty in his throwing game in his first two starts this season. His average of 4.77 yards per play is less than inspiring, especially when gearing up to face an Ole Miss defense that has been performing well.
The Rising Rebels
Ole Miss has surprised many this season, particularly with their 3-0 record against the spread. This record might include some last-minute wins, but their double-digit victories against the underrated Georgia Tech and Tulane teams are hard to ignore. Jaxson Dart, their quarterback, has answered lingering questions about his abilities by demonstrating significant improvements in both accuracy and downfield passing. He is also a substantial threat on the run. The Ole Miss offense, guided by Lane Kiffin, boasts impressive statistics: 8th in EPA per play, 7th in EPA per game, 11th in yards per play, and 19th in success rate.
Defense and Metrics
What makes Ole Miss even more intimidating is their strong defense, particularly against the run. Their defense ranks 11th in EPA per game and 29th in rushing success rate. On the other hand, Alabama has not even made it into the top 50 in these metrics and stands alarmingly at 101st in passing success rate.
Betting and Predictions
Despite the dynamic shifts in public opinion and betting lines, Alabama remains a 4-point favorite on a neutral field. But given the uninspiring performance from Alabama’s offensive line and quarterbacks for three straight weeks, it seems more and more like Ole Miss could upset the apple cart. The 7 points in Tuscaloosa look increasingly attractive for those betting on the Rebels.
BettingPicks Expert Predictions
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