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MLB Predictions

Can I wager MLB on my phone?

MLB has been one of the most resistant amongst pro North American sporting leagues to accept sports betting. This is hardly surprising, as in 1919 there was the Chicago White Sox scandal, in which former Cincinnati Reds manager and the all-time hits leader Pete Rose wagered on games. Times, however, are changing rapidly since sports betting has become legal and regulated in more than 25 states. Nowadays, it is possible to wager online and from mobile in many locations in the US. As a result, betting online and on mobile on the MLB has become very popular, as bettors can place several wagers types on a massive variety of events where they are without having to visit a retail shop (again, this is limited to the states where online and mobile sports betting has been legalized). Betting on the go on the MLB is a very entertaining way of being involved in the action, with millions in the US already enjoying this service. 

What are the perks of MLB mobile betting

There are several advantages of being able to wager on the MLB via your mobile phone. The most important ones are: 

  •  Sign up bonuses are more generous for first-time users, and there are several price boosts and other promotional offers for existing customers
  • Thanks to the intuitive layouts, you can quickly place your wagers from where you are without physically visiting a retail shop. 
  • Possibility of live betting on the MLB, with continuously updated odds based on the actions unfolding. 

Things to check before placing MLB online and mobile wagers

Betting on the MLB via mobile is excellent, but there are some essential things to check before getting involved. Some of these are: 

  • Is the online sportsbook and app legal in your state? Is the mobile app and sportsbook fully licensed?
  • What are the terms and conditions of the bonus offer? For example, how many bets do you need to place before you can claim the full amount of the bonus, and when would you be able to make the first withdrawal?

Most sharp bettors also have several online sportsbooks accounts with legal operators. This is advisable as by doing so, you will not only benefit from more welcome bonus offers, but you will be able to quickly shop around for the best odds depending on the bets you are keen to place. 

How To Wager on MLB Games

MLB is a sport built on numbers and large sample sizes, and for this reason, the unpredictability of baseball is well known to sports bettors. Betting odds and lines are set on season-long trends, but things can quickly change. So in the short term, situations like this can arise and will derail any wager, even the ones built on the back of solid research. In the long run, though, bettors that know the right numbers to consider can undoubtedly find an edge and achieve success, as long as they have solid bankroll management and a consistent strategy. Our MLB betting experts will help you towards this target by providing the best MLB match previews, picks and analysis throughout the season. So let’s take a look now at the most popular MLB wagering types. 

MLB Moneyline Betting

The simplest and most popular way to wager on the MLB is the moneyline. In this wager type, bettors only need to decide which between Team A and Team B will win, with odds that are usually swinging from -200 to +200. As the season continues and injuries increases, the difference between teams might become more apparent, with odds that will reflect these gaps.  When oddsmakers decide which team will be favored, they are using many different factors like home/away performance, winning streaks and overall records, starting pitchers and offensive numbers, which teams are likely to attract more bets and so on. 

MLB Over/under Betting

The next most popular way of wagering on the MLB is with the Over/Under betting. In this bet type, bettors are predicting if the two teams on the field will cumulative score more or fewer runs than the line set by the sportsbooks. Of course, also in this wagering market, there are many things to consider like the weather, location, team records and so on. 

MLB Run line Betting

The spread, which is called run line in the MLB, is a significantly less popular wager type in baseball than football or basketball. This is because baseball is a low-scoring sport, with books that nearly always set the line at 1.5, with one team that would need to win by two or more runs and the other that would need to keep it within a run loss or win outright. Wagering on the run line on a favorite will always offer bigger value than the moneyline, but the potential profit margin will drop for the underdog in this market. Sometimes, lines might increase to 2 or even 2.5, especially towards the end of the season, although this is rare. Bettors can also choose to bet moneyline, spread or total for the first five innings of a game. Usually, this is done with the hope of focusing the bet only on the starting pitching matchup. 

MLB Proposition Wagers

Prop bets are an enjoyable way to add some excitement to a game that bettors might be attending or watching on TV. With this type of wagers, you can, for instance, predict which inning will have the highest score, which team will score first, and how many home runs both sides will hit.  Prop bets are also available on individual players and will be in similar form: will player A hit a home run?? How many runs or RBI will he have? How many strikeouts will player B record? Will player b allow a home run? With the availability of advanced stats at our fingerprints, the opportunities for prop bets are endless, and in some cases, you can get very high payouts for the most challenging statistical achievements. 

MLB futures betting

MLB Futures bets are a way to place wagers on long-term outcomes, like predicting who will win the upcoming season’s World Series or each division or the American or National League pennant. MLB Futures markets are available before the start of the new season, with odds updated throughout the season. MLB Futures bets also exist for individual players, as you can wager, for instance, on how many home runs a power hitter will have, how many wins or strikeouts for a pitcher and so on. MLB Futures bets are also on season-end awards like MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. Although these wagers will generally include the usual suspects before the start of the season, odds will be updated regularly with surprising breakout stars added as the season progresses. 

MLB live betting

One of the advantages of online betting is that bettors can jump into any game at any time and wager the live lines. Odds for the most popular MLB markets like moneyline, run line and total are therefore updated live and will fluctuate during the game based on what is happening. For instance, a game scoreless through five innings will see total drop significantly from what it was at the beginning, and if the bettor does expect things to chance could get a decent value by backing the live Over at that point.  Knowing the team’s performances and reading what will happen next in MLB games could deliver great value and great entertainment when live betting on the MLB. This is why this wagering market has become so popular and lots of sportsbooks are offering more and more markets. 

MLB Odds Explained

As mentioned above, money line odds in the MLB will typically range from -200 to +200. With +200 bettors will double their investment if they get their prediction correctly. For instance, with a $10 wager, they will get a $20 profit. With -200 odds, they will get the profit which is half of the investment (ie. $10 will return $5 profit).  Odds can also be represented with fractions or decimals, which is more common in Europe. Regardless of how they are represented, odds are a way to express the implied probability of winning a bet. For example, an implied win probability of 99% would have odds of -9900 in American odds, 1.01 in decimal odds and 99/1 in fractional odds.  Lower probability events do have higher or longer odds. The higher the probability, the shorter the odds will be. For instance, a team with +350 odds of winning a game, would be considered a long shot or to have high odds. A player with +10000 odds of being the MVP at the end of the season in an MLB future bet would be considered a long shot. A chalky pick is to wager on events that have low odds, like, for instance, wagering a first-place team to win outright over a last-place opponent in a money line market. As you would expect, low odds mean a small return on investment.  On the other hand, underdog teams usually carry plus-money on the moneyline (for instance, +200), while on spreads and totals you would typically have -110 for both sides, considering that sportsbooks take their vig, also called juice or rake. By doing so, regardless of which side will win, the book will take a 10% on all wagers as a margin. So, if a bettor is laying $100 on -110 odds for an Over to win, the profit will be $90.91.  Bettors can, however, make a very decent profit if they decide to back several favorites in a parlay bet. For example, let’s say you are adding five teams to win (or you can have five Unders, or two teams to win outright with one team to cover the spread and two separate totals, overs and unders) on a full day’s slate of games. If all goes to plan, your potential return will be significant. Of course, with parlay bets, the amount of risk rises as you add more selections, but also does the potential profit. The tricky part here is that all the selections would have to win for a parlay to hit.  Bettors also have the opportunity of teasing each event in a parlay. They have the flexibility of raising or lowering the likelihood of a result by adding or taking away runs to or from one team or another. Odds will reflect the change depending on what has been teased. 

MLB Season Schedule

The MLB regular season starts typically at the beginning of April and runs through until October. The baseball playoffs are played in the remainder of October, while the All-Star Game is usually played in mid-July. 

What are MLB Power Rankings and How do They Influence MLB Betting?

Power rankings are generally based on the MLB standings, but they do also account for recent winning and losing streaks and also provide information on the offensive and pitching production of teams. As happens with other major US sports, these rankings are usually made by expert writers or by those who are closely following specific sides. The Power rankings are usually updated weekly and monthly, and they are handy for these bettors searching for value bets. They provide further insights compared with the standings, as they pick up if a team has a particularly positive or negative period. For instance, you might find a team slipping down the power rankings weekly, but that is still a solid favourite with sportsbooks. In this scenario, the opposite side could be a value bet. 

MLB Betting Strategies

What we have seen so far are rather basics MLB betting strategies. Let’s now dive a bit deeper to look at some more advanced strategies that MLB betting professionals use to gain a long-term edge against the books. It is important to stress that bankroll management plays a crucial role in being successful when wagering on the MLB. Establishing how much to wager on each event and every day is one of the keys to success, as it is impossible always to win wagers. Sports bettors should aim to break even, and a rate of 50% correct picks is considered a success. Let’s see the key factors to consider when betting on the MLB. 

Check MLB injuries

Finding out about MLB injuries might be a bit tricky, but this is a factor that has a more negligible impact on the outcome of games compared with other sports. Some sites post the daily lineups for every team, and for an MLB bettor, it is vital to check the situation before placing a bet to ensure the key players are in the lineup. Twitter is also a precious resource for MLB betting, as you will find lineups and notes on which players are in the lineup. You might also find out which players are likely to see action off the bench and how many pitches a starter is likely to throw before being replaced. Of course, oddsmakers will also be looking at this information to adjust their odds, but if you can manage to get the news before the books, you are in a strong position to find an edge. Typically, if you notice a strong line movement, it is usually due to a player being unavailable or a player returning to the lineup. 

Figure Out Home park advantage

Statistically, MLB teams don’t have the same home advantage as teams in the NFL or the NBA, and this is due to the amount of games that take place in a season and also because most series are made of three games, which allows away players to get used with the scenarios. One thing to consider carefully is when teams have to travel after a game that ends late because they are to play the next day. For instance, some teams play at 7 p.m. and 1 p.m. the day after.  Since each baseball stadium is different, teams can adapt their lineups to the dimensions of their home parks, which provides an advantage. For instance, a team that are playing home games in a park with a short right-field wall might have left-handed power hitters who are more likely to deliver home runs. On the other hand, an opponent with predominantly right-handed batters may have problems in such a park. 

Watch out for Situational betting factors

Baseball is a sport where lots of numbers and analytics information are available. Mastering these will give MLB bettors a clear edge, as they will know where to look and what to avoid when deciding their wagers. The majority of MLB stats are broken into splits as you have home vs away, righties vs lefties, days of the week, day vs night, grass vs turf, etc.  All these information are a great way to find value when betting, especially live. For instance, a team doing well against a starting pitcher might run into trouble when the manager turns to the bullpen. Also, do not overvalue hitting streaks or slumps but make sure to compare numbers throughout a season against a smaller sample size of just one or two weeks. The same can be said for pitchers. Can you find any exceptional starts (which could be poor or great) skewing the numbers in any direction?  

Importance of Weather in MLB Betting

For teams that are playing outdoor, weather forecasts are important to consider. The direction of the wind, if it is toward the home plate or over the center field wall, can significantly influence the outcome. Early in the season, temperatures in cities like Boston, New York and Cleveland can be cold, and there might even be snow at times. With temperatures rising and better weather, run totals are likely to be positively affected. Also, rain can impact, especially when it is in the middle of a game. If, for instance, you count on a team to make the most of their runs against the opposing bullpen, you must consider rain if there is a risk of the game being called after the fifth inning. 

Watch out for Line shading

Similarly to other sports, check when the books are trying to steer the betting action in a particular way. Teams like the Yankees will almost always be the favorite, or will never be a huge underdog. This is because they are a public favorite and are likely to attract more bets, regardless of their chances of winning a specific game.  The same can be said for teams on prolonged winning or losing streaks. Of course, this will never go forever, yet books might indicate that with their odds. The same can be said for a team that is struggling to generate offense over several games. As the projections decrease, the value starts to be on the Overs. 

MLB Betting System 

Betting against the public or ‘fading’ the public is a betting strategy where a bettor monitors the lines to target the other team, if one team is getting a very high percentage of the betting handle. It is also a strategy to bet against a very popular favored team like the Yankees, who usually have significantly lower odds than they should. This means there would be value in backing the opposing team, as the books hedge the odds to respond to the high betting volumes. 

Backing Underdogs after a win

Casual bettors and fans do not expect underdogs to win two matches in a row. As a result, their odds are usually inflated after a victory, creating an excellent opportunity to find an edge. 

Unders for winning teams

Teams that are recording long winning streaks are doing so, normally, on the backs of their pitchers. As the winning streak goes on, the team’s moneyline and run line odds will decrease. A good strategy, in this case, is to avoid simply betting on the winning team to continue to win but to focus instead on the Under of their games, either as a standalone or by backing it with a moneyline or run line wager. Betting on the Under will also help you against the risk of a sudden loss that will, at some point, end the winning streak. Oddsmakers will also normally artificially increase the total odds when two winning teams face each other. With two teams in good form, fans will be looking for runs, and the books will try to capitalize on this desire by adjusting the odds accordingly for the Over. This means that backing the Under would be more advantageous. 

Run lines against top teams

This strategy works best when a division leader faces a team on a losing streak. Not surprisingly, the better team will be the favorite both on the moneyline and run line, while the losing team will be a huge underdog to win outright. In this case, we have seen that there is good value in backing the losing team in the run line, with odds that are usually inflated for this option that is still very much realistic (ie. losing by a single run would still yield the return). 

Take advantage of welcome bonus betting

As we have seen, the majority of sportsbooks in the US are offering generous welcome bonuses to new customers. As long as you understand the rules and terms around these promotions, they can add great value to your betting. For example, a common rule of bonuses requires the new customer to wager the bonus a certain number of times before being able to withdraw it. An excellent strategy to maximize the return from these offers is to bet heavily on favorites with this bonus money. The profits you will earn won’t be huge, but you will be able to claim the bonus amount faster and either increase your bankroll or withdraw the free cash. 

Advanced MLB Betting Markets

With sports betting increasing fast in popularity, sportsbooks are offering more and more events to wager on. In addition to the usual moneyline, totals and run line, bettors can predict individual innings or other segments of an MLB game. There are also markets to bet on series scores and winners, like playoff time. 

Taking advantage of these additional wager types is a great way to boost your winning potential, and there is an excellent edge to find, especially when betting live. By keeping a close eye on the performance of the bullpen and bench or by noticing a starter that is becoming tired, you might find some incredible odds to exploit in real-time. 

How to maximize stats for MLB betting

There are many stats available in baseball that can be an essential basis for any pick. Professional bettors like those in our MLB Picks team know well that they need to be careful in avoiding the trap of ‘confirmation bias’. Don’t stop researching just because you have found some support for your initial belief, but go deeper to see if other data confirm this. 

Here at BettingPicks4You, we have plenty of useful stats for virtually any baseball situation. For instance, we look deeper into the numbers of every underdog when looking for the best value. Has a team been poor lately? Is the team playing away likely to struggle in a venue with different dimensions than its home park? Is the team performing well against flyball or groundball pitchers? So there are lots of things to consider, and our experts are working hard to ensure that no stones are left unturned when making MLB betting predictions. 

How to be successful when betting on the MLB?

Now that we have analyzed all the basics and looked at the several key strategies to get an edge over the sportsbooks and avoid some of the most common mistakes let’s look at how we can be successful over the long period when wagering on the MLB. 

If you are a beginner bettor, you should use a very conservative approach and shouldn’t use more than a single unit, with the unit equal to a set amount you are keen to risk and potentially lose with a single wager. Likewise, new bettors shouldn’t risk more than 5% of a bankroll on a single bet. The bankroll is the amount of money bettors have deposited into the sportsbook and can afford to lose. Another thing to avoid is to be dragged by the temptation of staking high amounts on big-payday parlays and teasers. Parlays and teasers are fun and can be played in moderation, yet the main focus should be on individual games and events that statistically have better chances of success. 

Don’t forget that a win is a win and that you have significantly more chances of long-term success by moving slow steps and delivering a consistent profit, rather than trying to cut corners to get big wins and withdraw fast. 

Our professional bettors are creating their own betting system where they have specific realistic targets of return on investment. Then, as the odds change, you can adjust your investment for the desired return. Considering that the MLB season is so long, betting on the MLB is more of a marathon than a sprint, and opportunities to win in the long run are more than in other pro sport. 

Another important thing is to diversify your bets while staying consistent with the number of wagers placed. There will inevitably be good days and bad days, but make sure to track your losses and gains and analyze them calmly, without being emotional. Bad streaks are part of the game, and you have to accept them for what they are. Never overreact and get them to change your strategy, as the biggest mistake would be to try chasing lost money by betting more on higher odds. 

Value is king. Make sure you shop around at different books to ensure you get the best possible value. After all, competition is growing daily in the US, and by opening multiple betting accounts with US top operators, you will benefit from more welcome bonus offers, and you can also use them depending on how good are their odds for the bet you want to place. If you just stack with a single sportsbook, you will leave potential winnings on the table, regardless of how good the operator is. Imagine that one book is offering +130 on the Marlines and another had +135 odds, you are losing a potential $0.50 on every $10 wagered by wagering on the lower odds. 

The last thing to watch out for is to avoid huge favorites and try to find more underdogs that can return plus money. In this way, when making more wagers, you have a better chance of securing a profit, even if you lose more bets than you win!