MLB picks Thursday, 7/6 – YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Spotlight on Eury Perez and Luis Severino

The week in Major League Baseball carries on with a dozen games scheduled this Thursday. A few teams are in between series, yet we still have a plethora of matches to choose from. The agenda features three afternoon duels, followed by an evening lineup that boasts headliners like Phillies vs Rays and Orioles vs Yankees.

This betting market has rapidly gained traction amongst baseball bettors. The appeal lies in the immediate outcome – there’s no need to wait for the duration of a three-hour game (or even less, given the recent reduction in average game length) to know if you’ve won or lost. The verdict is decided in the first inning.

Read on for my top picks for YRFI/NRFI bets this Thursday. Don’t forget to check out all of our MLB picks for today’s games as well.

SL Cardinals
First Match Starting Thursday 6th July, 6:40 PM ET
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BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Cardinals vs Marlins: NRFI (-130)

Orioles vs. Yankees: NRFI (+105)

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St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-130)

Although the Marlins racked up 4 first-inning runs on Wednesday and Eury Perez, their starter for Thursday, let in 6 runs in his last appearance without making it past the first inning, I believe NRFI (No Runs First Inning) is a wise bet. Following a game where both teams amassed a total of 21 runs, it’s typical for the next match to be a low-scoring affair, virtually a pitching standoff. However, my argument isn’t just a hunch.

Perez’s disastrous performance last week was against the Braves, a team notorious for battering their opponents. While they average 1.02 first-inning runs per game, the Cardinals only manage an average of 0.42 on the road. Despite Perez’s recent debacle, his overall record remains impressive at 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA. His performance this season has largely been exceptional, the Atlanta setback being the only blip.

Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for the Cardinals, who in his last 8 starts has conceded a first-inning run only twice. In his previous four games, he has delivered 6.0 innings twice without conceding any runs. He’s up against the Marlins, who are second from the bottom in first-inning runs, with an average of just 0.34 per game.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: NRFI (+105)

Among today’s options, this matchup really catches the eye. Luis Severino will be pitching for the Yankees, and his form has been concerning since his return from the IL, with an ERA exceeding six. His early innings are particularly rough, casting doubts about this bet. However, his velocity has improved recently and he should be able to hold off runs in the initial inning.

The Orioles will have Kyle Bradish on the mound, who has had an outstanding season. With a 0.259 wOBA conceded on the first time through the order, Bradish’s performance has been solid. While the Yankees’ offense has seen some improvement, they still struggle to accumulate runs. Despite Severino’s rough patch, the plus odds make this a particularly enticing bet.

BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Cardinals vs Marlins: NRFI (-130)

Orioles vs. Yankees: NRFI (+105)

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Patrick Culhane
Father of two beautiful kids. Grew up around sports, still waiting for the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. Is very adamant that Breaking Bad is the best tv show ever.