In this highly anticipated showdown between Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox, both teams’ pitching struggles coupled with their strong offenses. Read on for our free match preview and betting picks.
Match Live Wednesday 31st May, 7:10 PM ET
Key Stats
– The Boston Red Sox rank third in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in May 2023.
– The Cincinnati Reds have shown an impressive wRC+ of 167 against left-handed pitchers over the past two weeks, ranking fourth in MLB.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox Predictions: A Battle of Offenses at Fenway Park
A Roller Coaster Pitcher in Focus
In the aftermath of a riveting series opener on Tuesday night, where the Boston Red Sox dramatically clawed back from an 8-0 deficit to narrowly lose 8-7, the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen is both exhausted and dependent on starting pitcher Luke Weaver. Weaver’s season so far can be likened to a roller coaster ride, with his performance having both highs and lows.
A striking statistic that stands out is his Earned Run Average (ERA) of 5.45. Although the right-hander’s Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) and Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA) show more respectable figures of 4.35 and 4.04 respectively, Boston’s formidable offense poses a significant threat.
Matchup and Strategy
Weaver’s challenges mount when facing left-handed hitters, with his xFIP escalating to 5.06 against them. The Red Sox can exploit this by lining up left-handed batters against him. Further, Weaver’s pitching predominantly involves a blend of a four-seam fastball and a changeup, a strategy that has seen him land in the 6th percentile for barrel rate allowed. Boston’s offense, which ranks 14th in barrel rate and 3rd in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this May, will likely capitalize on this weakness.
The Red Sox’s Veteran in the Fray
On the Red Sox’s side, veteran left-handed pitcher James Paxton will take to the mound. Despite returning from injury and maintaining a relatively high 5.14 ERA in his last three starts, Paxton’s xFIP and SIERA figures stand at a more palatable 3.91 and 3.74. However, the Reds have exhibited strong performance against left-handed pitchers, with a striking wRC+ of 167 over the past two weeks, ranking them 4th in Major League Baseball (MLB).
Predictions for the Match
With both bullpens laboring due to recent exhaustive games or injuries, an explosive offensive game is on the cards, especially with winds favoring batters at Fenway Park. This contest between the Cincinnati Reds and the Boston Red Sox promises to be an intense showdown marked by a battle of offensive strategies and varying pitching styles.
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