St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions

Despite the Cardinals’ dominance over right-handed pitching, Merrill Kelly’s return for the Arizona Diamondbacks presents a unique challenge, although recent performance metrics suggest a high-scoring game. Read on for our free match preview and betting picks.

SL Cardinals
Match Live Tuesday 25th July, 9:40 PM ET
DAYS
Hr
Min
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Key Stats
– In the last 30 days, the Cardinals rank 4th in wOBA and 3rd in AVG against right-handed pitching.
– Merrill Kelly, despite his impressive season, ranks in the 30th percentile for free pass issuance and has a hard-hit rate in the 40th percentile.
– The Cardinals’ Steven Matz has allowed only five earned runs across his last three games, spanning 14.2 innings.
BettingPicks Expert Predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks Win (-105)

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St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions: The Return of Merrill Kelly

Arizona Diamondbacks’ renowned player, Merrill Kelly, is set to return to the field after an unexpected hiatus due to a blood clot in his leg. His recent simulated bullpen practice saw him attain a pitch count of 85. Even though he isn’t expected to perform at full capacity, reports suggest he won’t face much limitation in this game. However, a daunting challenge lies ahead for Kelly as he’s slated to face the Cardinals offense, recognized for their prowess against right-handed pitching over the past month.

The Cardinals’ Offensive Dominance

In the last 30 days, the Cardinals have ranked fourth in Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and third in batting average (AVG), coupled with an impressive Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 126. Their ranking as the 12th highest in walk rate and sixth lowest in strikeout percentage underscores their exceptional plate discipline. However, Merrill Kelly’s return adds a twist to this matchup, despite some of his metrics being less than ideal.

A Closer Look at Merrill Kelly’s Metrics

Kelly’s impressive season is somewhat marred by a few shortcomings. His free pass issuance is higher than the league average, placing him in the 30th percentile due to a 58.8% first-pitch strike rate. His hard-hit rate stands at 40.3%, ranking him in the 40th percentile and representing a career low, while his barrel rate places him in the 37th percentile. Moreover, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.85 and Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) of 4.12, although commendable, are worse than last season. His Expected ERA (xERA) of 4.31 is also a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.22. Kelly’s first game after his medical break will certainly be challenging, particularly considering the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, which has suffered throughout this month, ranking 28th in ERA, 27th in FIP, and 25th in K-BB%.

Steven Matz: A Reliable Choice for the Cardinals

In contrast, the Cardinals’ Steven Matz has displayed solid performance across his last three games, surrendering just five earned runs in 14.2 innings. Matz, having attained a pitch count of 97 against the Cubs in his last outing, seems to be in good form. However, his Expected Batting Average (xBA) and average exit velocity, ranking in the 24th and 33rd percentiles respectively, leave room for improvement. Behind Matz, the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA and 28th in WHIP since July began, suggesting this game could be high-scoring.

BettingPicks Expert Predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks Win (-105)

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Carl Tarver
Born and raised in Denver and a former college baseball player, I'm an avid fan of prop bets, especially on the NBA, NHL, NFL, and NCAA. looking to find an edge by any means necessary. As a lifelong Nuggets fan, I promise to be very impartial when the Nuggets are not involved!