Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson Predictions & Picks

Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson Predictions


Key Stat: Nate Diaz is eyeing a remarkable farewell

Tip Reasoning

  • Ferguson has lost four of his last five bouts
  • Diaz is the better grappler, with an average of 1.10 takedowns
  • Nate Diaz has a 3-2 record versus the shared opposition, but Tony Ferguson has a better record of 4-1.


Nate Diaz has a 21-13 MMA record going into this fight. He has a record of 19-12 in the UFC, with his most recent defeat coming in June 2021 by unanimous decision to Leon Edwards. Diaz has a striking accuracy of 45% and averages 4.51 significant strikes per minute. He is taking 3.73 hits and has a 52% strike defence. His grappling is also decent; he averages 1.10 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts every fifteen minutes. His takedown defence is 41%, and his takedown accuracy is 30%. Meanwhile, Tony Ferguson has a 26-7 MMA record going into this fight. He has a history of 15-5 in the UFC, with his most recent defeat in May this year by KO/TKO to Michael Chandler. With a striking rate of 45%, Ferguson averages 5.12 meaningful strikes each minute. His striking defence percentage is 58%, absorbing 3.81 strikes

In what seemed to be a last-minute decision, the Diaz vs Chimaev fight could no longer happen. This was due to Khamzat Chimaev missing weights by 7.5 pounds, as he weighed in at 178.5 pounds. This left the UFC president Dana White in a tight spot as he had to announce late Friday that Diaz will now take on Tony Ferguson in the main event, scheduled for five rounds. Ferguson initially planned to fight Li Jingliang, which caused massive changes to the main card. Ferguson coming into this fight had prepared for only a three-round fight, which could end up as an enormous disadvantage for him. He’d have to find a way to fend off a hungry Nate Diaz for solid five rounds. This duel between two ageing sports superstars. Ferguson will likely see his most significant success early on, but Diaz, who has better cardio, will probably overtake him in the final stretch. This fight is Diaz’s to lose as he seeks a proper send-off. Nate Diaz to win is my pick for this fight.

Tip Reasoning

Key Stat: Fight not to go the distance

  • Both fighters have a similar average fight time of about eleven minutes
  • Tony Ferguson has an 80% finish rate, including 14 by knockout, nine by submission, and five by decision.
  • Three of Diaz’s last five fights went the distance.

This is Nate Diaz’s supposed last fight in the UFC. The Stockton-born fighter will be looking to leave the UFC in grand style, and a win by decision isn’t peculiarly the best way to end his time in the UFC. He’d be looking to win this fight by K.O/T.K.O, and because Ferguson lost his last fight by T.K.O, Nate Diaz has a better chance of knocking out Tony Ferguson. I believe Tony Ferguson’s cardio will fail him in this bout, and Diaz, who had prepared for a more extended fight, will end things via K.O or submission.

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Emmanuel Ifabiyi
Ifabiyi Emmanuel Olaniyi is a sports writer that covers major American sports such as the NBA, NFL and Soccer. His wild passion and enthusiasm for these sports inspired him to kick off his career as an analyst and copywriter two years ago.