Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson Predictions & Picks

Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson Predictions


Key Stat: Nate Diaz has received a much more appropriate rival for his last fight in the UFC

Tip Reasoning

  • Instead of battling Khamzat Chimaev, Nate will fight Tony Ferguson in the main event of the evening
  • Ferguson has lost all four of his previous fights and we don’t see him as the favorite for the win here at all
  • He has suffered KO losses to Gaethje and Chandler in the process


Tony Ferguson got a chance to fight in the main event of the UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas following a Khamzat Chimaev fiasco. Chimaev, who was supposed to be huge favorite in the clash with Nate Diaz, missed weight by 7.5 pounds on Friday, forcing Dana White to reshuffle his main card schedule. Fortunately, the UFC boss has managed to do it without too many problems, finding adequate rivals for every fighter. We will thus have the bout between Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz in the main event of the night.

This is honestly a much more appropriate fight for Diaz on his farewell from the organization. This is his last bout per contract with UFC and there are no reasons for the organization to extend it given that Nate has generally not fought that much in the last several years either way. As a matter of fact, Diaz has only been in the octagon three times in the last six years. However, Tony Ferguson has not much more active or better in any way of late either. This is why we are going for the value here, backing Nate Diaz to win in what is likely going to be the last fight of his career. The odds are set at +137.

Tip Reasoning

Key Stat: The two men are far off their peaks

  • In normal circumstances, they could easily take the fight to the distance, but they both lack condition and strength at this stage
  • We don’t expect the fight to be finished in the opening round either
  • The value is thus with Diaz to win in Round 3 at the +700 odds

Neither Nate Diaz nor Tony Ferguson are capable of sending this fight into a five-round marathon. At least not at this stage of their careers. We do not expect this to finish early on either especially with the likely more careful approach by both fighters who have received different opponents than the ones they had prepared for. Both men are far beyond the peaks of their careers but they are both beloved by fans around the globe and there are no doubts they will come up with a spectacle. Since we find the fight very close, the value is definitely with Nate Diaz who is the underdog by the sportsbooks. To get higher odds and better value, we will back Nate to win in Round 3 at the sky-high +700 odds.

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Mark loves all American sports since a very young age. He has experience working in the UK for some of the leading UK tipping sites for several years (time goes fast when you having fun), and now has the opportunity to cover Tennis, MMA, UFC, Soccer, NFL, NBA, NHL for all US readers.