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NBA Betting News, Best Bets, and Analysis from Expert NBA Handicappers
NBA betting is one of the most popular forms of sports betting in the United States. There are many different ways to bet on the NBA, from the generic markets like Money Line, Points Totals, and Spreads to the more NBA-specific wagers like Player Rebounds, Player Assists, Team Points Scored, and so on. NBA futures are also very popular. You can bet on the NBA Championship and divisional or conference winners, or go player-specific with wagers on player futures like the MVP Award.
Betting on the NBA is not easy, as the season is very long, and there are frequent upsets throughout. Any team can beat another on any given night, but our expert NBA handicappers here at BettingPicks4You are working hard to help you stay afloat as they take into consideration all the latest news and trends in addition to key players’ news and team stats to provide the best NBA betting advice on every match of the NBA season. Don’t miss out on our expert NBA picks and NBA predictions, where you will find a pick against the spread and on the points total for every single NBA game from the first day to the NBA Finals.
How to Place NBA Bets
In the NBA, you can bet on long-term events like the winner of the NBA title with futures bets or bet on NBA single games. The most popular way to bet on single games is against a point spread, which is done by sportsbooks handicapping the favored team. For instance, if the Bucks are playing a weaker opponent at home, they might be listed as Bucks (-15.5), which indicates they have to win by 16 points to cover that spread. You can also bet on an NBA game without the spread, which is called betting the moneyline. The team that has odds with the minus sign in front is the favorite, while the team that has the plus sign in front of the odds is the underdog.
In our example, the Bucks might be listed at -650 as a big favorite to beat the Hornets, which means it would take a wager of $650 to get you $100 if they are successful. A $100 bet on the Hornets at +650, on the other hand, would return $650 if they pull off an upset. Another popular way to bet on the NBA is the point total, also called “over/under.” Sportsbooks will assign a number, usually in the range of 200–240, which reflects how many points they think the two teams will score. Bettors can wager on a total (for example, 220.5) and win if their prediction is correct.You can also wager on point spreads and point totals in segments, like the first quarter, first half, second half, etc.
NBA proposition bets
Plenty of bookmakers are offering a vast number of bets on individual performances. For instance, if a player scores over or under a certain number of points during a game. You can also bet on things like how many rebounds a player will record, how many assists, and so on. In addition to proposition player bets, there are also NBA team prop bets, which will be focused on a whole team. These bets are a great way to still wager on the site without being strictly dependent on the final result.
NBA live betting
A very entertaining and innovative way of wagering on the NBA is to have the opportunity to place bets as the game unfolds. For instance, you might notice that both teams lack defensive intensity and that there is good value in backing the over. Having the opportunity to spot trends while an NBA match is on is fun and can also be profitable, which is why so many people love this new form of wagering.
NBA Odds Explanation
Moneyline odds are the most common for NBA bets, and will have the + sign if they are linked to a favorite and the minus sign if they are linked to an underdog. When you bet on a tease or parlay, you have the option of combining multiple bets into a single wager.Of course, this type of wagering will only pay out if all the legs in the bet hit. The main advantage, though, is that by combining these separate wagers, the bettor will get much better odds on the overall wager, which could turn a small stake into a significant payout. The teaser is also a way to parlay results, but in this case, you can adjust the odds in your favor. On the flip side, the payout on a teaser will be smaller, but statistically, you will have better chances of winning.
The odds in the NBA are set based on what sportsbooks believe is the closest way to handicap the bet so that there are equal chances. Following that, the book sets standard odds of -110, with a 10% “rake” or “vig” that constitutes the operator’s margin.So usually, it takes a $110 bet to win $100 on a moneyline wager. Despite oddsmakers trying their best to produce odds that reflect the real probability of an event outcome as closely as possible, there are always wagering opportunities to be found in the NBA, and our expert handicappers are working hard to exploit these and highlight them to you.
Let’s start with the basics and look at the NBA schedule. After all, without NBA games, there is no NBA betting! The regular season will generally start in mid-October and last until April, with the NBA Finals starting in early June. All 30 NBA teams will play a total of 36 home games and 36 road games, with the top eight teams in each division (East and West) qualifying for the playoffs.
What are the NBA Power Rankings?
NBA Power Rankings are a handy tool to determine the best and worst teams in the league. These rankings are made by NBA experts who have spent their time covering and analyzing the league. They are particularly interesting when betting on the NBA, as they show if a team is trending up or down and give some insights into what can happen next. So if you are looking to identify betting value in the NBA, this is an excellent tool as it might help you figure out favorable NBA betting odds ahead of a game.
NBA betting strategies
Now that we have analyzed the basics of NBA wagering, let’s look at the most common strategies you can use consistently. Remember that cashing over 50% of bets is already considered successful in sports gambling, so don’t get frustrated if you struggle to hit that initially. If you are struggling, make sure to bookmark our NBA picks page, where you will find daily predictions made by our top NBA handicappers that can help you build better bets.
As we have seen earlier, the NBA season is very long, so it is not surprising that players sit out frequently due to injuries. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on social media platforms like Twitter to find out the latest injury news, as key players’ absences will significantly impact the NBA team’s strengths. However, it doesn’t mean that a top team cannot cope with some players being out, so you might want to consider how the sportsbooks are reacting to the news and whether there is value in the suggested odds. For example, Sharps bettors have successfully wagered on good teams that see a decrease in their point spread or even become underdogs due to overreaction from oddsmakers to key injury news.
NBA home court advantage
In the NBA, we can see that home teams consistently win around 60 percent of their regular-season games when playing on their home court. This is hardly surprising if you consider that the advantage of playing at home is significant due to crowd noise, familiar routines, and ref biases, and that is calculated at around three points per game. Of course, oddsmakers are aware of this factor, but they are not always fully considering the schedule and results leading into each home game. For instance, teams that suffer a bad defeat on the road before going back home, might be more motivated to come out strong, and there could be an opportunity to place wagers against the spread for the first half of that encounter. So, before betting on the NBA, consider the schedule leading up to a game, especially since NBA players and teams tend to take nights off to perform at their best over the long season period.
NBA motivational betting factors
There could also be motivational factors affecting the outcome of an NBA game. For example, a coach who is fired, hired, sick, or doesn’t get along with key players can have a direct impact on how the team performs on the court.As mentioned before, analyzing the schedule is paramount as a team might be playing their fourth game in five nights or could be playing the last match at the end of a long road trip. As you might expect, there are numerous factors to consider when betting on the NBA, but the most important thing to keep an eye on is how teams perform on zero days rest.
How do I take into account NBA line shading?
To increase your chances of success in sports betting, you need to consider that you are in a battle against the oddsmakers, who are also working hard to deliver a profit. Sportsbooks will be keen to maximize their earnings by shading lines towards more popular wagers, like taking a favorite to cover a reasonable spread or wagering the over. Books are using set lines intentionally to deliver the perception that a team should be favored, like setting a -1 spread at home, in what should be considered a 50/50 affair.
Giving a team a slight advantage will attract more money to the opposing team because bettors will receive the value of the +1 against the spread. An excellent NBA betting strategy that works well long term is to identify value when sportsbooks are strongly shading the line towards a popular wager. Looking at trends is very important in NBA betting. For example, if a team has won 11 straight games, they might be listed as -13 instead of -10 against a strong team. In this case, wagering against the favorite team might be the right opportunity, as you will get betting value.
NBA Middling the second
Middling is similar to hedging a big bet, as you are taking both sides of a line to make a profit with both tickets. For instance, you could wager on a team at +10 before a road game. If that team starts strongly and leads by 3 points at the half, the book will likely adjust the second-half line to something like -1.5 for the favorite. If you take the favorite at these improved odds, they can win by anywhere between 2 and 10 points, and you will be able to get a payout on both your pre-game wager and the halftime one. This is a great way to maximize your return when you pick the first half correctly, making the most of the book’s adjusted line.
The NBA High Totals System
Sportsbooks normally undersell games expected to have high totals in their actual scoring opportunities. The High Total System is a simple yet effective NBA betting strategy to place wagers in bulk on games with totals above the average. For instance, a total of 220 points used to be rare, but in today’s high-scoring NBA, this strategy will consider games with totals of 228 or higher, which are typically between nonconference foes.
The NBA Blowout System
The public and oddsmakers tend to overreact when a team wins a game by 15 or more points. However, if we look at the stats, we can see that a team covers the spread after winning impressively in less than 50% of the cases. This creates excellent betting opportunities for finding betting value.
The NBA Bounce Back System
The Bounce Back System corresponds to the Blowout System, which proves that NBA teams coming off a 15-plus point loss tend to cover the spread and even exceed the projected point total in their following matches.
The NBA Zig-Zag Theory
The Zig-Zag Theory is an NBA betting system that combines the Bounce-Back and Blowout Systems into a handicapping strategy that should be used during the NBA Playoffs. In a relatively even series, the team that lost the previous game of a series has more chances to cover the spread or win the next games outright. Therefore, home teams are most likely to cover after losing the last match.
The NBA Three-in-Four System
The defense is struggling when teams are playing the third match in four nights. According to this system, games at the end of a busy schedule are more likely to exceed the point total because both teams struggle to sustain defensive efforts.
The NBA Back-to-Back System
Winning two nights in a row is challenging for any NBA team, so this system suggests wagering against a victorious team when they are playing the second half of a back-to-back set. The location also plays a big role in this system, as teams are more likely to lose on the road when playing back-to-back nights.
The NBA Tunnel System
With this system, you will be able to compare different sportsbook opinions.If, for instance, a book lists an NBA game with a 220-point total but another one sets it at 217 points, you could place a wager on the under (220) or the over (217). In this scenario, you will be guaranteed to lose 10% of your investment if the total is outside 220 or 217, but if it is between these two numbers (the tunnel), both tickets will payout. Considering that sportsbooks are very good at predicting totals, the tunnel system can deliver in the long run, despite the 10% vig.
The NBA Martingale System
This system is hazardous for gamblers with addiction issues, and it should only be tried by those who have an ample bankroll that they can afford to lose. With the Martingale System, bettors would take a statistical average (for instance, the Bucks averaging 108 points per game) and bet over their team total of 108.5. If they fail to deliver on that number, the system will suggest doubling the wager until it pays off. In this way, the bettor will cover the losses, assuming that the statistical trend will eventually regress to the mean.
The NBA D’Alembert System
The D’Alambert System is designed for bettors with a limited bankroll.There is an incremental increase in your nightly bet with this system, from $10 to $20 to $30. It does help mitigate the risk, as if you lose, you downgrade from $30 to $20 instead of keeping doubling the wager like in the Martingale, hoping to level out.
Advances NBA Betting Markets
Now that you know how to wager on the spread, point total, or outright winner, there are more advanced markets you might want to consider. For example, during the NBA Playoffs, you can wager on the correct series score if you are up for a challenge. You can also wager on series total games, where you will receive a payout regardless of which team wins.Finally, betting on teams on a quarter-by-quarter basis is also an excellent way to make the most of trends, while in-game betting can be used to capitalize on your knowledge of the game and also to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
How to use statistics for NBA betting
Having the correct statistics and research tools can help make decisions when wagering on the NBA. For instance, teams’ records against the spread at home vs. away, after a win vs. after a loss, on the second half of a back-to-back set, etc. There are also offensive and defensive stats that show how well a team performs at home versus away, as well as how well they perform when they have had no days rest.All this information can be a great starting point when betting on the NBA and is widely used by our NBA expert cappers. You can also dig deeper and look at single players’ or teams’ stats. For instance, does one team shoot a lot of 3 pointers? How does the other team defend the 3-point line? All these stats can help identify the pace of a game and help predict the point total. You might also want to look at the pace of play, assist to-turnover ratio, true shooting percentage, etc.
Don’t forget that oddsmakers are using these metrics when setting the line, so finding a competitive advantage is not easy and requires lots of research and interpretation. The best way to prevail over a sportsbook is by gaining more experience and figuring out betting value where it is not obvious to many. Don’t worry if you don’t have the time or the skills to do it; our NBA expert handicappers are working hard on your behalf!
How do I bet on the NBA and win?
Professional bettors know it is impossible to win all the time, but they approach sports betting as a long term opportunity. This means managing the bankroll for the long haul and finding consistent value when wagering. A formula called “expected value” (EV) can significantly help determine if a bet is worth making. It is a formula that covers the potential return on investment. So, if you wager $10 on the moneyline of an NBA game to win $11, the EV would be 0.5. This is what the formula looks like: (Chance of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) = (Chance of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet).
So, let’s say an underdog team is listed at +200, but the implied probability says that they will win 1 out of 3 games against the favorite, so you have an extra $50 for a successful $100 bet. This means that 1 out of 3 propositions should only pay out 150% of the bet, which will be $150. Even if this might sound complicated, EV is only a tool that predicts the likelihood of success in the long run. After all, sports betting is subjective, and you can find value in many different ways, as we have seen above. However, having a plan will help you be more consistent over a long period of time and help you become a ‘sharp’ bettor. Professional or “sharp” bettors always ensure to log their actions to track their results over time and learn from their mistakes. They will also mark the NBA schedule to spot and predict trends, like, for instance, how a team tends to perform at the end of a road trip or at home.
Sharp bettors and NBA strategies
Smart bettors will always try out different NBA betting strategies over a medium-to-long period of time to see how well they work. If they don’t like the outcome, they are ready to make detached adjustments but never make decisions dictated by short-term disappointments. As we have seen, for instance, with the “Tunnel System” and similar systems, it is essential to create sports betting accounts on multiple sportsbooks so that you can take advantage of their odds against each other and generally get the best possible odds. There is no shortage of opportunities when betting on the NBA, and with new functionalities like “cash out” or live betting, players have more and more control over their bets and can turn things to their advantage with the right skills and experience.