The New York Knicks could regain control against the Miami Heat by utilizing the recent rotation changes. Will they succeed? Read on for our free match preview and betting picks.
Match Live Wednesday 10th May, 7:30 PM ET
Key Stats
– The Knicks’ shooting potential with RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes in the rotation.
– Both teams rank in the bottom ten in PACE since the All-Star break.
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Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Predictions: New York’s Shot at Redemption and Aiming for Game 6
The New York Knicks face the Miami Heat in a challenging playoff series, with the Heat dominating so far and holding an 8-1 record against the spread. Despite this, the Knicks might have found a way to regain control and force a Game 6.
The team’s rotation changes, such as Quentin Grimes replacing Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley’s injury, have given the Knicks a fighting chance. Grimes’ defensive versatility, particularly against Jimmy Butler, could be the key to leveling the playing field.
The Importance of Physicality and Outshooting the Opponent
The Knicks are expected to play a more physical style of basketball, aiming to outshoot their opponents, especially with the help of RJ Barrett and Grimes in the rotation. The Heat’s only loss against the spread in the playoffs was a road game against Milwaukee, where the Bucks had an outstanding performance from beyond the arc. The Knicks have the potential to mirror this with improved shooting.
Betting on Regression to the Mean: Over 209.5
While Miami’s playoff games have mostly gone over and New York’s have gone under, Vegas is unsure which way to lean for this matchup. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in PACE since the All-Star break, but this match could see a regression to the mean.
In the two games where Julius Randle and Jimmy Butler were healthy, the teams scored 191 points when shooting under 25% from three and 210 points when shooting under 35% from three. A return to around the 35% mark could easily result in at least 210 points. Ticky-tacky foul calls in a close-out situation add another potential edge to the over.
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