The Miami Heat are predicted to bounce back in Game 6, thanks to expected regression to the mean and strong home court performance. Will they succeed? Read on for our free match preview and betting picks.
Match Live Friday 12th May, 7:30 PM ET
Key Stats
– The Heat have a 36.0% success rate in 3-point shooting during the 2023 playoffs.
– Both teams rank outside the NBA’s top 10 in PACE since the all-star break.
£20 Returns £102  ----- £20 Returns £95 |
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New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Predictions: Miami Heat Set to Bounce Back in Game 6
The Miami Heat’s dominance in the series has been momentarily hindered by their inability to close out on the road due to a 3-point shooting disparity. In the last game, Miami’s Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love, and Kyle Lowry went 2-for-18 from beyond the arc, while New York’s Big 3 of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, and Julius Randle managed 11-for-25. Regression to the mean for both teams is expected in the upcoming game, particularly for Miami’s Jimmy Butler, who was criticized for his lack of scoring aggression. Despite this, Butler made excellent decisions, racking up 9 assists on 14 potential assists.
Bench Performance and Coaching
One positive aspect for the Heat has been their bench consistently outplaying the Knicks. Coach Erik Spoelstra’s strategies have led to open shots, and the team’s failure to capitalize on them proved to be the difference in the last game. As Miami heads home for Game 6, it’s expected that their 3-point shooting will improve, having achieved a 36.0% success rate during the 2023 playoffs. With an average margin of victory of 10.9 points in these playoffs, the Heat are confidently predicted to close out the series with a strong performance from Butler and the shooters.
Under 208.5 Points and Slower Pace
The under 208.5 points pick correlates directly with the prediction against the spread. Both teams are known for slow half-court sets, ranking outside the NBA’s top 10 in PACE since the all-star break. In the playoffs, only two Knicks games have gone over the Vegas total, with one of them being the previous game in this series. Miami’s Coach Spoelstra is renowned for defensive adjustments, and even if the Heat’s 3-point shooting improves, the game’s tempo should keep the total under the line for the second time in this series.
£20 Returns £102 ----- £20 Returns £95 |
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