MLB 2023 Home Run Derby Predictions, Odds and Best Bets: Luis Robert Jr. Emerges as a Strong Contender

The All-Star weekend celebrations are officially underway! This year, the chosen venue is Seattle, Washington’s T-Mobile Park. The traditional inaugural event, the Futures Game, took place on Saturday, and if you missed it, rest assured that the future of baseball is secure and exciting. The next event to look forward to is the much-anticipated Home Run Derby, scheduled for Monday night, an event that invariably attracts countless fans for its sheer thrill and spectacle.

Unlike a regular season game where spectators might be lucky to witness a single home run, the Home Run Derby promises to be a spectacle of power-hitting, with the number of homers anticipated to be in the hundreds (yes, you read that correctly). BetMGM has set the over/under for the total home runs to be hit on Monday night at an astonishing 276.5.

There is an abundance of betting opportunities on offer for the Derby, including head-to-head match-ups, most homers in the initial round, longest home run hit, and naturally, the champion of the event. This article aims to provide a comprehensive breakdown of the odds for the Home Run Derby winner, an overview of each contestant, my top pick for the champion, and my best bet for the entire spectacle. So, let’s dive right into the action!

Parlay Starting Monday 10th July, 8:00 PM ET

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Exploring the Contenders and Predictions for the MLB 2023 Home Run Derby

The stage is set for eight home run experts to compete in the forthcoming derby. Presented below are the odds for each contender, as provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pete Alonso, at +300, is a two-time Home Run Derby champion, having emerged victorious in the 2019 event in Cleveland and the 2021 event in Colorado. Alonso’s winning streak met a shocking end in 2022 in Los Angeles. Despite this, Alonso is ready to reclaim his title this year in Seattle.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has odds of +365. You may find it surprising to learn that the slugger from Toronto only hit 13 home runs by the all-star break. Guerrero smashed 48 homers in 2021 and 32 in 2022, indicating that he’s still a significant home-run hitter, despite a drop in his figures this year. It’s quite an unexpected twist that Guerrero’s first home run on his home turf this season only came on June 23.

Luis Robert Jr., with odds of +500, is arguably the most exciting contestant in this year’s derby. His performance shines a bright light amidst the dismal season for the Chicago White Sox. With a 15.6% barrel rate and a 36.4% sweet-spot rate, Robert Jr. has managed to hit 26 home runs by the break, showing that he indeed knows how to smash the ball.

Previewing the Odds for Luis Robert Jr. at +450

In his fourth season, Luis Robert Jr. has already hit a career-high 26 home runs, which is just ten shy of his total count from the past three seasons. This derby will be Robert Jr.’s first, and he could potentially be the second White Sox player to claim victory after Frank Thomas in 1995.

Julio Rodriguez at +550: A Quick Glimpse

Julio Rodriguez stunned everyone last year as a rookie, hitting 81 homers in the derby and ending up in second place behind Juan Soto. Rodriguez is currently tied with Prince Fielder for the eighth most career home runs. Despite currently experiencing a sophomore slump, Rodriguez, with 32 homers in the first round and 31 in the second, holds two top-5 records. Being a Seattle local, he’s bound to be a crowd favorite. Out of his 41 career home runs, 22 have been at home, so the audience will undoubtedly support the 22-year-old star.

A Close Look at Adolis Garcia at +600

Adolis Garcia, one of this season’s top offensive performers with 23 home runs and 73 RBI leading the league, has odds of +600. In his last 394 games, Garcia hit 81 home runs, meaning a home run in 20.5% of the matches. Garcia could potentially be the third Ranger to win the derby, following in the footsteps of Ruben Sierra in 1989 and Juan Gonzalez in 1993.

Best Bet for the MLB 2023 Home Run Derby Winner: Luis Robert Jr. at +450

Alonso is favored for evident reasons, and Guerrero is a popular choice due to his pure strength and past achievements. However, both players are up against tough competition and may face each other in the semifinals if they can surpass Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts.

This is why Luis Robert Jr. seems like a better choice. His initial round against Adley Rutschman, who has the lowest odds, seems winnable, and then he faces either Garcia or Arozarena. Robert Jr. seems to have a less challenging path to the finals, making my +450 odds a strong bet.

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