The New York Mets are returning home following a lackluster series in Philadelphia, and I’ve constructed an intriguing Same Game Parlay centered around the match between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets. Don’t forget to browse our MLB Predictions to gain an advantage in today’s games. Without further ado, let’s unpack the specifics of this Same Game Parlay focused on the imminent clash between the Brewers and Mets.
Parlay Starting Monday 26th June, 7:10 PM ET
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Milwaukee Brewers for the Win
After a disheartening series in Philadelphia that culminated in a self-inflicted 8th-inning collapse on Sunday, the New York Mets are heading home. A potential double play ball that resulted in a throwing error by third baseman Brett Baty led to the Phillies tallying 4 runs, converting what had been a 6-3 Mets lead into a painful loss.
This defeat now puts the Mets 15 games behind the Braves in the NL East and 8 games adrift of a Wild Card spot held by the Dodgers. Contrastingly, the Brewers, who bagged 2 out of 3 games from the Guardians over the weekend, find themselves just half a game behind the Reds after the Braves halted Cincinnati’s 12-game winning streak.
Despite being home favorites tonight, the Mets will have Justin Verlander on the mound who is struggling with a 4.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, his worst stats since 2014. Verlander’s alarming vulnerability to home runs this season also poses a significant problem.
On the other side, Colin Rea, despite having a 4.88 ERA through 12 starts for the Brewers, has been remarkably consistent, pitching at least 5 innings in 11 out of 12 starts and not allowing more than 4 earned runs in any game. Given Rea’s reliability and the Mets’ recent struggles, the Brewers appear to be the value pick.
Francisco Lindor and Daniel Vogelbach to Achieve Over 1.5 Total Bases
In the upcoming face-off, the Mets will confront Brewers’ right-handed pitcher, Colin Rea, whose recent and seasonal performances against left-handers have been notably poor.
Rea has conceded a .294 ISO and .416 wOBA to his most recent 57 left-handed opponents. On the season, his numbers are only slightly better, with a .231 ISO and .363 wOBA. These concerning trends date back to the start of the season and have worsened in the last 30 days.
Mets players Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor have shown solid stats against right-handed pitchers recently, recording .203 and .213 ISO respectively, and wOBA of .346 and .320. Daniel Vogelbach, from the Brewers, also has commendable stats against righties, with .229 ISO and .335 wOBA in his last 39 plate appearances.
Rea’s vulnerability is further emphasized by the hard contact rate of 62.5% he has allowed to left-handers in the last 30 days, coupled with a high percentage of line drives (30%) and fly balls (40%). Meanwhile, his groundball rate stands at a low 27.5%. Additionally, Rea’s inability to achieve significant whiffs or swinging strikes against left-handers is another worrying factor.
Given these statistics, it seems reasonable to bet on left-handers succeeding against Rea tonight for the Mets.
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