MLB picks Friday 6/16: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Gallen Dominance over Guardians

Betting on whether a run will be scored in the first inning of MLB games is a rapid and popular choice among bettors. It’s not only valuable but also resolves within approximately 15 minutes, saving you hours of anticipation. This market has been quite fruitful for us this season, and we aim to maintain that stride!

Before we delve deeper, ensure you take a look at our MLB picks for every game today. For this Friday, two YRFI/NRFI bets catch my eye. Let’s jump right in!

SL Cardinals
First Match Starting Friday 16th June, 7:10 PM ET
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BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Cardinals vs Mets: YRFI (-110)

Diamondbacks vs Guardians: NRFI (-115)

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St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets: YRFI (-110)

As part of our Friday’s YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) prediction, our attention is drawn once again towards the showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets. We foresee a distinct advantage in fading both pitchers involved in the matchup, namely Miles Mikolas and Tylor Megill.

Miles Mikolas, in particular, has been on our radar for potential fading throughout the majority of this season. His recent performances, surrendering 5 runs in one outing and 10 hits in another, have only reinforced this perspective. Additionally, his 4.87 xERA and low whiff rate and xBA, which fall within the bottom 7% among all starters, make him an easy target for the Mets’ strong lineup.

As for Tylor Megill, he allowed 16 earned runs across his last 16 innings on the mound. With an xERA of 5.85 and his xBA and BB rate in the bottom 15%, he is clearly underperforming, leaving room for even more downturns in the future. Consequently, we anticipate an early run to occur at Citi Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-115)

As we shift our gaze to the upcoming matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cleveland Guardians, we find an enticing NRFI (No Run First Inning) opportunity.

The Guardians will have Triston McKenzie on the mound, who is set to start his third game of the season following his recovery from an off-season shoulder injury. Despite the small sample size, McKenzie’s minimal 2.29 xERA from his first two starts is noteworthy, indicating a promising start to his season. McKenzie has also displayed a consistent capacity for dominance since his emergence in 2020, as revealed by similar Statcast metrics across his first three seasons. His performance metrics, which exceed the league average in xBA, xWOBA, K%, whiff%, and chase rate, are indicative of his high performance levels. Additionally, McKenzie significantly reduced his walk rate in 2022, addressing one of his few weaknesses from his first two seasons.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Cy Young hopeful Zac Gallen, whose impressive record of 7-2, an ERA of 3.10, and a WHIP of 1.15 in the 2023 season speaks volumes about his exceptional performance. Gallen’s striking ability to make batters swing and miss puts him in the top third of all baseball players in K%, whiff%, and chase rate. His remarkably low walk rate, barely over 5%, ranks in the 88th percentile.

Moreover, Gallen has maintained an xERA below 4.00 throughout his career, underscoring the consistency of his stellar performance. Up against the Guardians’ weak offense, which ranks in the lower echelons for OBP, SLG, OPS, and HR, Gallen is expected to sail through the lineup, provided McKenzie fulfills his role. Adding to the advantage, Chase Field’s below-average HR rate since 2021 promises an added bonus in this matchup.

BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Cardinals vs Mets: YRFI (-110)

Diamondbacks vs Guardians: NRFI (-115)

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Patrick Culhane
Father of two beautiful kids. Grew up around sports, still waiting for the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. Is very adamant that Breaking Bad is the best tv show ever.