MLB picks Friday, 7/14 – YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Focusing on Corbin Burnes in Brewers vs Reds and Julio Urias in Mets vs Dodgers Contests!

The second act of the Major League Baseball season is about to unfold. Post the All-Star break, the baseball scene is set to come alive this Friday. The first set of MLB matches since last Sunday include a complete array of 15 games, with the action starting at 6:05 pm ET when San Diego face-off against Philadelphia. Furthermore, you can catch the San Francisco versus Pittsburgh and Dodgers against Mets encounters on Apple TV+.

The YRFI/NRFI betting market in baseball has amassed a significant following. Its allure lies in the fact that the outcome is determined quickly, no need to wait through a 3-hour game (or less, given the recent trend of shorter average game lengths). The results are revealed right after the first inning.

Here are my prime picks for YRFI/NRFI bets this Friday, and don’t forget to browse all our MLB predictions.

Starting Friday 14th July, 7:10 PM ET

BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (+105)

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-105)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (+105)

The Reds, albeit being one of baseball’s most entertaining teams, were unable to score in the first inning of their last five games before the season’s halfway point. Interestingly, three of these games were against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes will take the mound tonight; with a 7-5 record and a 3.94 ERA, Burnes conceded merely four earned runs in his two starts in July. In his last seven appearances, Burnes allowed a run in the first inning only once, including two successful starts against the Reds.

Opposing him will be Cincinnati’s Graham Ashcraft, who’s been in excellent form recently. In his last two games, he only let two runs past in 12.2 innings. Over his last four starts, he let a run slip in the first inning only once, including a shutout of the high-performing, YRFI-leading Braves. With the NRFI at plus-money, the value proposition is appealing.

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New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-105)

As the Mets emerge from the All-Star break, Verlander will open for them against the Dodgers. Verlander has been steadily improving after a rough beginning to his season. His xwOBA over the last 50 batters faced is significantly higher than the league average and places him in the 74th percentile for the year. His other expected metrics are also impressive: his xERA is lower than his actual ERA of 3.60, while both his xBA and xSLG put him in the 60th percentile or higher.

Verlander is among the top quarter of all pitchers for BB%, and his fastball and curveball spin rates place him in the top 20th percentile. He will have the advantage of pitching at home, where his ERA is almost three runs less than in away games. His home ground, Citi Field, ranks fourth from the bottom in overall offensive park factors and significantly suppresses extra-base hits while encouraging strikeouts.

Conversely, Julio Urias of the Dodgers paints a different picture in 2023, one that belies his 4.76 ERA. His xERA is 0.70 runs lower than his actual ERA, and his 1.18 WHIP notably outperforms the league average of 1.312. He isn’t being hit hard, ranking in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit%. Urias’s walk rate is a career second-lowest at 5.3% (90th percentile), and he’s prompting chases on off-strike zone pitches in the 84th percentile.

Facing the Mets, who have shown weaker batting splits against left-hand pitchers and rank 15th or lower in BA, OPB, OPS, and SLG, Urias is in a favorable position. Given the mismatch between Urias’s results and performance, the second half of the season could witness him rebounding positively, starting with this match.

BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: NRFI (+105)

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-105)

You can also check out our Friday MLB mega parlay.

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