As we proceed into the second complete week of the 2023 Major League Baseball season, we have a compact 7-game lineup on Thursday. This includes a few early game starts, culminating with the Brewers and Padres at 9:40 pm ET.
The YRFI/NRFI betting market has gained immense popularity in baseball wagering. Instead of waiting for 3 hours (or even less, as games are shorter on average these days) to find out the outcome of your bet, you get instant gratification or disappointment. It all hinges on the first inning. Here are my top YRFI/NRFI wagers for Thursday, and don’t forget to check our MLB picks for all today’s picks.
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Key Stats
– Kluber has a career .282 wOBA allowed during the first time through the order.
– Velasquez allowed five runs in just 2.2 innings in his last appearance against the Chicago White Sox.
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: No Runs First Inning (NRFI) (-125)
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The Rays have captured the attention of the baseball world with their 12-0 start, thanks to their potent offense and outstanding pitching. Jeffrey Springs has been a standout among the pitchers, making significant progress early in the season.
Boston’s offense has performed at a league-average level against left-handed pitchers, ranking tenth in K% against lefties in the initial stages of the season. The departure of Adam Duvall might impact them, but given Springs’ excellent performance, I expect him to maintain his momentum.
The challenging aspect of this wager is Corey Kluber. Despite being a former CY Young award recipient, his 2023 start has been less than ideal. His 13% BB% is a far cry from his usual performance and would be the highest of his career.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals: YRFI (+100)
TEST $50 payout $100 Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Ideally, the YRFI in this game will be settled before the bottom of the inning even begins. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh’s #3 batter, has a 4-for-11 lifetime record against St. Louis left-hander Jordan Montgomery, including a home run, a double, a walk, and no strikeouts. Carlos Santana, the cleanup hitter, has a 2-for-4 record with a home run and a double.
If the bottom of the first arrives and the YRFI is still unresolved, the Cardinals are likely to capitalize on Pirates right-hander Vince Velasquez’s struggles. With an 0-2 record and a 9.82 ERA in two starts this season, Velasquez allowed five runs in just 2.2 innings in his last appearance against the Chicago White Sox.
Paul Goldschmidt has a 5-for-14 lifetime record against Velasquez, including a home run, while Nolan Arenado has three hits against the veteran pitcher. This familiarity with the matchup could spell trouble for Velasquez from the outset.
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