MLB Picks Tuesday 6/20: YRFI & NRFI Best Bets Today: Spotlight on Nathan Eovaldi’s Dominance

For Tuesday’s packed lineup, I’m banking on experienced pitchers to carry a couple of NRFI wagers to victory. Nathan Eovaldi will square off against Dylan Cease, while Justin Verlander is pitted against Framber Valdez. Every team mentioned in this piece is among the dozen Major League Baseball teams with an NRFI success rate exceeding 50%, and all four hurlers have received Cy Young consideration in at least one season.

Let’s dive in, and remember to check out our MLB picks for every game today on the side and total.

TEX Rangers
First Match Starting Tuesday 20th June, 8:10 PM ET
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BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Rangers vs White Sox: NRFI (-120)

Mets vs Astros: NRFI (-125)

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Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: NRFI (-120)

In an under-the-radar display of brilliance, Nathan Eovaldi has put forth a formidable season, with a 9-3 track record, an impressive 2.59 ERA, and a WHIP of 0.98. A range of his advanced metrics are well above the average, including whiff%, chase rate, K%, xBA, and average exit velocity. His xSLG, xWOBA, and barrel% rank even higher, within the top 30 percentile. Moreover, he has been walking a little over 5% of the batters he’s confronted.

He’s up against a White Sox batting order that’s in the lower echelons in terms of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and particularly struggles with right-handers. I’m fully on board with Eovaldi’s match tonight and predict a pristine opening inning from him.

Dylan Cease will be handed the ball by the White Sox. While he hasn’t replicated his dominance from last season, there’s good reason to be hopeful about Cease’s performance tonight. His arsenal remains potent – his fastball, among the game’s best, ranks in the top 80th percentile for velocity and 94th percentile for spin rate.

His curveball’s spin rate is also in the top third of the league, assisting him to a whiff% and K% well beyond the league’s mean. His xBA, xSLG, and xERA hover around the average, though his latest 50 plate appearances suggest a positive trend. With both Rangers and White Sox among the top-10 teams for NRFI success this season (57% and 53% respectively), I anticipate tonight’s clash of titans to maintain these tendencies.

New York Mets vs. Houston Astros: NRFI (-125)

For the Astros, a familiar face takes the mound tonight – Justin Verlander dons the Mets uniform. Verlander is fresh off an excellent previous start where he delivered six innings of three-hit play, conceding just one earned run. Statcast data confirms that both his fastball and curveball remain elite, their spin rates placing within the top quartile.

His walk rate falls in the 70th percentile, with his chase rate in the 71st percentile. His xERA, xBA, and barrel% are comfortably above the mean. He faces an Astros lineup weaker against right-handers and minus the services of Yordan Alvarez. I see Verlander leveraging his momentum to deliver another commendable performance against his old crew.

Framber Valdez has been a stalwart in the MLB’s upper rotation, boasting a 2.27 ERA and 1.03 WHIP going into this match. Though his ground ball rates have slightly diminished from the exceptional rates he’s posted in past seasons (over 70%), he remains a top-five pitcher in inducing ground ball outs, well over 50%. This compensates for his subpar average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage as batters are restricted from gaining launch angle on those powerfully struck balls.

His walk rate of 5.5% is the lowest in his career, and he ranks in the top 30th percentile for strikeouts. Like the earlier match, both Astros and Mets are top-10 in NRFI success (56% and 51% respectively). The pitcher-friendly Citi Field, ranked second from last in offensive park factors since 2021, provides an added advantage.

BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Rangers vs White Sox: NRFI (-120)

Mets vs Astros: NRFI (-125)

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John Pentin
John was born and raised in London, John has always been in love with American sports. He started to write football articles back in 2006 on his own blog and has also worked for several newspapers. John other passion was betting and has worked as a trader for several top sports book in the UK. As sports trader and has joined leading UK betting tipping site BettingTips4You in 2013 and he is now head of content. He has a great passion for US Sports so hasn't wasted the opportunity to write also for NewJerseySafeBetting, now that online sportsbetting has been legalized in the state.