MLB picks Tuesday, 7/4 – YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Independence Day Specials Worth Betting On!

The week’s Major League Baseball action pushes ahead with a full roster of 15 games on Tuesday. The highlight reel for the day includes an uncommon 11:05 am ET start time for the face-off between the Reds and Nationals, along with 9 other afternoon games, all coinciding with the July 4th holiday. With such a plethora of options, it offers abundant opportunities for placing your YRFI/NRFI wagers as we look to commemorate Independence Day in grand style.

The YRFI/NRFI market has gained immense popularity in baseball betting circles. The beauty of it lies in the fact that you don’t have to endure a three-hour long game (or even less, considering the average game time has decreased) to know the outcome of your bet; it’s all about the immediate thrill (or occasional letdown) that is decided in the first inning itself.

Here, I present my top picks for YRFI/NRFI wagers for Tuesday, and don’t forget to check out all our MLB picks for today’s games.

LA Angels
First Match Starting Tuesday 4th July, 4:10 PM ET
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BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Phillies vs Bay Rays: NRFI (+106)

Angels vs. Padres: NRFI (-125)

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays: YRFI (+106)

This YRFI presents an enticing option, especially with the generous plus money offering, as the Rays’ pitcher Zach Eflin is set to face off against his previous teammates. There is significant historical data to consider, with several Phillies players having prior experience batting against Eflin.

Notably, Trea Turner has a .304 average against him with 2 home runs and a double from 23 at-bats, while Bryce Harper has posted a .556 average with 2 doubles from 9 at-bats. Kyle Schwarber has managed to achieve a career cycle against Eflin in just 11 at-bats. Eflin’s recent performances also favor the YRFI, as he has given up a first-inning run in 3 of his last 7 games.

For the Phillies, Aaron Nola will be taking the mound, but his performance this season has been less than ideal with a 4.51 ERA. Though the Brewers’ players haven’t managed to do much against Nola in the past, this should not be a reason to dismiss Milwaukee, currently standing 11th in the MLB for first-inning runs. Furthermore, the Phillies are 5th in the same ranking, contributing further to the YRFI argument. At the current price, the chances of an early run seem appealing.

Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres: NRFI (-125)

For the Padres, Joe Musgrove will be the pitcher of choice for today’s game. Musgrove’s exceptional season has seen him record some impressive stats, including a 3.17 xERA placing him in the 84th percentile. His barrel%, hard hit%, chase rate, BB%, and exit velocity are all within the top 80th percentile. Moreover, his xBA is in the 68th percentile.

In his last 250 plate appearances, his above-average xWOBA indicates his stable performance. Considering the Padres’ NRFI success rate, which ranks among the top 10 teams, trusting Musgrove to navigate through the Angels’ formidable lineup seems a reasonable choice.

Concluding the list of NRFI picks is the remarkable Shohei Ohtani, whose outstanding performances continue to build his reputation. Similar to the previously mentioned pitchers, Ohtani’s stats are outstanding. His exit velocity, K% and xBA place him in the top 10% of all pitchers, while his xSLG and whiff% are in the top 20%. His hard hit% and xERA both fall within the top 25%.

The Padres, despite their recent modest offensive improvement, still post notably weaker numbers against RHP, such as Ohtani, than against LHP. The fact that Ohtani and Musgrove will be pitching in one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB, known for its lower XBH rates and higher strikeout rates, further favors the NRFI bet.

BettingPicks Expert YRFI & NRFI Predictions

Phillies vs Bay Rays: NRFI (+106)

Angels vs. Padres: NRFI (-125)

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Patrick Culhane
Father of two beautiful kids. Grew up around sports, still waiting for the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. Is very adamant that Breaking Bad is the best tv show ever.