Amid Thursday’s abundant 12-game Major League Baseball lineup, ample opportunities for lucrative betting abound. After scouring the day’s MLB games, I’ve identified three choices delivering a promising return at BetMGM Sportsbook. While our complete MLB predictions remain at your disposal, let’s delve into my chosen MLB mega parlay for the day.
Parlay Starting Thursday 29th June, 8:05 PM ET
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Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals over 9.5Â (-102)
In today’s mega parlay, we kick off with the over in the encounter between Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals, with an over 9.5 at -102. The Astros have been grappling with consistency throughout 2023, much of it rooted in their pitching rotation. J.P. France, the 28-year-old rookie, takes the ball for the Astros. Despite boasting a respectable 3.54 ERA and conceding nine runs in the last four matchups, France’s 4.38 xERA and subpar advanced metrics across the board signal an impending regression.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are having a forgettable season, with their starting pitching reflecting the struggles. The veteran right-hander, Adam Wainwright, is experiencing the worst season of his distinguished career with a 6.56 ERA coupled with a 6.82 xERA, affirming the difficult 2023 run. With Wainwright conceding seven runs in his previous appearance, I see no sign of him salvaging his season soon. We anticipate an abundance of runs at St. Louis on Thursday.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs – Chicago Cubs ML (-105)
Next, we turn our attention to the duel between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs on Thursday night. Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Phillies, having a 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP to his name. Walker’s percentiles are disconcerting, as he hovers around the lower end in most of them. His lackluster performance in xBA (44th percentile), K% (33rd percentile), and xSLG (39th percentile) is notable. Despite an 8-3 record, this is mainly due to robust run support in virtually every start, with his team scoring 5+ runs in seven of his eight victories.
In contrast, the Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks, the right-hander with an enviable 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Hendricks isn’t renowned for his strikeouts, but his percentile metrics show a knack for limiting hard hits and retaining them within the park, with a mere one home run conceded in six starts. Plus, his 74th percentile for BB% indicates he seldom offers free bases. His ability to command a game and pitch deep into it sets him apart. With Hendricks limiting the Phillies’ firepower, I’ll side with the Cubs’ money line.
New York Mets -1.5 over Milwaukee Brewers (+112)
Lastly, we have the New York Mets with a -1.5 run line over the Milwaukee Brewers at +112 to complete our mega parlay. Despite a challenging season, the Mets see an opportunity to rebound on Thursday with their ace, Max Scherzer, on the mound. Despite a few noticeable poor starts in 2023, Scherzer has generally held up to his reputation since returning from suspension, conceding just three runs in his last 14 innings pitched. His 3.45 xERA indicates that a positive regression is due for Scherzer. While Scherzer should manage to subdue the average Brewers batting lineup, Adrian Houser is likely to find the Mets a tough assignment on the road. Let’s back the Mets to secure a victory by at least two runs on Thursday.
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