NFL Futures: Most Passing Yards Predictions
Key Stat: Justin Herbert is the odds favorite to throw the most passing yards this season
- Herbert is +650 odds to throw for most passing yards
- Chargers QB had just over 5,000 yards throwing last season
- Herbert completed 65.9% of passes on 672 attempts
We are continuing our NFL futures bets for the upcoming 2022 season. The next bet we will look at is which QB will throw the most passing yards this season. Near the top of the list, you have the usual suspects in Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. However, none of those three are the odds-on favorite to throw for the most passing yards in 2022. Who is? Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert.
Now we would consider this a mild surprise that Herbert is the favorite. Still, we certainly don’t think it’s completely unwarranted. Herbert has been impressive since coming into the league and threw for over 5,000 yards last season. Herbert also has all-pro receivers to target in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, to go along with all-pro running back Austin Ekeler, so all the pieces are there to make this happen.
Is Herbert a solid choice to throw for the most yards next season? Yes, he is. But, we also like to look at the bet’s value. We would rather have seen Herbert third or fourth highest odds to give him some more value. Overall, looking at Justin Herbert for this future bet is not a bad bet.
Key Stat: Matthew Stafford has great value at 4th highest for this futures bet
- Stafford threw for 4,886 passing yards in 2021
- Stafford completed 67.1% of his passes on 601 attempts
- Stafford lost his second-best receiver in Woods to injury after game 9
Above, we talked about how good Justin Herbert is for the Chargers and was a good pick for the passing yards future bet. The only issue was we didn’t like him to be the favorite, which dropped his return value a little too much for us. We think the opposite candidate of Justin Herbert is Matthew Stafford.
Stafford has all the talent in the world, with great receivers, but is getting overlooked as only the 4th best option for most passing yards this season. To put it in perspective, Herbert threw for just 124 more yards than Stafford last season but needed 71 more attempts. If a quarterback throws the ball 35 times in a game, which is a good amount, even by today’s standards, that’s an extra two games Herbert needed to gain that edge on Stafford. Plus, Stafford gains an All-Pro wide receiver in Allen Robinson II, coming over from Chicago in free agency, to tag up with Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. The only concern with this pick is that the Rams should be the best team in the NFC, so if they get early leads by double digits on many teams, they may run the ball more than you’d like. Still, we think Matthew Stafford is the best bet with the best value for this bet, so we will take Matthew Stafford to throw the most passing yards in 2022.
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