When looking at sports betting lines, it’s important to know how to bet percentage and money percentage affect line movement and can be used to figure out why a line changed. Because wagering numbers can alter the public’s view of which side is being favoured, many bettors may become perplexed when lines fluctuate. This holds true for all sports, including betting on MLB, the NFL, and other leagues.
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What Exactly Is a Bet Percentage?
The number of bets placed on a particular side by the general public is known as the bet percentage. Let’s say, for instance, that 70% of the public would bet on the Warriors while 30% are backing the Blazers. Even though this is basic information, it might be crucial when analysing lines.
Money Percentage: What Is It?
The percentage of the money that has been placed on a side of a wager is called money percentage. Sure, 70% of the public may place wagers on the Warriors, but the line may change if more wagers are being placed on the 30% of wagers on the Blazers. This is why it is different from the betting percentage.
Betting lines are affected by money percentage
Let’s examine the 70% to 30% NBA betting scenario in more detail. So, 70% of the populace is behind the Warriors. This is the total cost of each side’s bet ticket. Warriors -7.5 is the spread. You did observe, though, that even though the spread has changed to -7, everyone is wagering on the Warriors. Why would the line move down, one would wonder, if everyone was rooting for the Warriors?
Here’s where the cash comes in. This might be the result of the pros (sharps) slamming the Blazers and shifting the line. Instead of the bet percentage, sportsbooks base their line adjustments on the dollar amount.
Therefore, if there are 100 bets and 70 of them are wagers totaling $5,000 on the Warriors but 30 of them are wagers totaling $10,000 on the Blazers with larger bets, the line will swing in favour of the team winning much more money. This is what is called ‘reverse line movement’. A high bet percentage on one side will typically cause the line to move higher or steeper. But the more important factor is money and sharps. Most websites that display lines just display the bet % on either side, however, some also display the money percentage.
Consensus-Defying Trading Doesn’t Make You a “Sharp” Trader
If you want to read lines and understand the math movement behind them, it makes sense to check both percentages. It is a bare minimum requirement when analysing a day’s cards. Many gamblers who enjoy betting against the herd believe themselves to be “sharp.” There are, however, real sharp bettors and false sharp bettors. The phoney sharp bettors simply fade (go against) the public without considering any other criteria. The problem is that because they were unaware of the wagering levels on the game, the average bettor may be betting against the sharps without even realising it.
Most amateur sports bettors do not know what is behind the betting science. Sports betting education hasn’t reached its peak by any means, but I’m sure that in the future, the real experts and betting brains will come out and share what they know.
How to Take Advantage of Bets and Money Percentages
Sports betting is a lengthy process, thus the best strategy is to continue with methods that have a profitable projected value of at least 54%. When I refer to “expected value,” I imply a long-term strategy with empirical support. Going with the reverse line movement on teams getting a lot of money is one profitable betting technique when it comes to observing bet percentage and money percentage. A great chance of long-term success exists if 70% of the public is wagering on one NHL team while 80% of the money is on the other side.
This indicates that you are learning two important things from this. You should side with sharp bettors who are betting heavily on a team or total, while also competing with the average bettor who has backed one side and believes it is a sure thing. Keep in mind that fading the public indiscriminately is not a wise tactic. However, if you bet 70% of your money on the side that is opposite of the public’s bet proportion, the predicted value on reversal line movement will put you in a position to be profitable over time.
Be persistent and patient.